Elections, Legislation, & Regulations

The purpose of this research is to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of current (and pending) legislation & regulations that affect the financial services industry, and specifically the wealth & investment management industry. This research will also address the 2022 mid-term congressional elections and the evolving legislative & regulatory priorities that may follow. This research is part of Tiburon's broader coverage of financial services industry key driving factors.

This research begins with a context setting chapter, addressing the reasons that Tiburon follows elections, legislation, & regulations, as well as the practical experience in wealth & investment management.

This research includes a history of past elections, legislation, & regulations, including these phases:

Bank Regulation Phase
Securities & Investments Acts Phase
Glass Steagall Repeal Phase
Wall Street Reform Phase
Economic Stimulus Phase

The history chapter outlines the key financial services, and specifically wealth & investment management laws, including the National Bank Act of 1864, Federal Reserve Act of 1913, Securities Act of 1933, Banking Act (Glass-Steagall) of 1933, Securities Exchange Act of 1934, National Housing Act of 1934, National Housing Act Amendment of 1938, Trust Indenture Act of 1939, Investment Advisers Act of 1940 , Investment Company Act of 1940, Bank Holding Company Act of 1956, Self-Employed Individual Tax Retirement Act of 1962, Emergency Home Finance Act of 1970, Employee Retirement & Income Security (ERISA) Act of 1974, Securities Act Amendments of 1975, Revenue Act of 1978, International Banking Act of 1978, Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, Tax Reform Act of 1986, Money Laundering Control Act of 1986, Uniform Prudent Investor Act (UPIA) of 1994, Data Protection Directive (Europe) of 1995, Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996, Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) (Glass-Steagall Act Repeal) of 1999, Economic Growth & Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, Sarbanes-Oxley Public Company Accounting & Investor Protection Act of 2002, Tax Increase Prevention & Reconciliation Act of 2005, Pension Protection Act (PPA) of 2006, Patriot Act of 2008, Secure & Fair Enforcement for Mortgage Licensing (SAFE) Act of 2008, Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) of 2008, Credit Card Accountability Responsibility & Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009, American Recovery & Reinvestment Act (Recovery Act) of 2009, Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform & Consumer Protection Act of 2010, Patient Protection & Affordable Care Act of 2010, Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act of 2012, General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) of 2016, Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017, California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) (California) of 2018, Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, & Economic Security (CARES) Act of 2020, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

And the research concludes with several future predictions for elections, legislation, & regulations, including:

Continual Broad Revocation of President Trump's Immigration Policy But Limited Resolution of the Illegal Immigrant Situation & the Path to Citizenship

Tightening of Border Controls
Providing Assistance to Central American Nations
Pathway to Citizenship for Undocumented Workers, Especially Dreamers

Lengthy Implementation Period for Inflation Reduction Act with Uncertain Benefits

Revenue Generation Sources

Creation of a 15% Corporate Minimum Tax Rate
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Tax Enforcement
1% Excise Tax on Stock Buybacks
Prescription Drug Price Reform
Loss Limitation Extension

Spending Plans

Energy Security & Climate Change Initiatives
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Tax Enforcement
Affordable Care Act (ACA) Subsidy Extension
Western Drought Resiliency
Budget Deficit Reduction

Limited Tax Rate Changes Due to Reduced Economic Spending Plans

Corporate Tax Rate
Personal Income Tax Rate
Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate (Including Carried Interest Resolution)
Estate Tax & Exemption

Implementation of Student Loan Relief Plan

Forgive $10,000-$20,000 Debt
Repayments Capped at 5% of Monthly Income
Loan Repayment Pause Extended through 2022

Continued Delay of Social Security Reforms

Increasing Contributions
Raise Retirement Age

Migration to the Fiduciary Standard, Not Reg BI

Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) Best Interests Standard
Department of Labor (DoL) Prohibited Transaction Exemption
States Fiduciary Rules

Continuing Aggressive Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) Rulemaking Agenda Addressing Brokerage Issues, Advice Issues, Retirement Plan Issues, & Investment Management Issues

Brokerage Issues

Gamification
Cryptocurrencies
Payment for Order Flow

Advice Issues

Required Minimum Distributions (Secure Act)
Cybersecurity & Data Privacy
Advertising Rule (Client Testimonials)
Mandatory Arbitration Clause
Custody Rule

Retirement Plan Issues

Prohibited Transaction Exemption
Incorporation of Annuities
Sustainable Investing (ESG) Rules

Investment Management Issues

Chinese Stock Listings
Russia Market Exit
Money Market Funds Regulations
Accredited Investor Definition
Carried Interest Tax Rate
Private Market Disclosure

Continual Strengthening of Consumer Protection

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Data Protection
Senior Safe Act

Broadening of Corporate Regulations

Diversity Reporting
Compensation (Pay versus Performance) Reporting
Sustainability (ESG) Reporting

Battle for Both Houses of Congress with Mid-Term Congressional Elections Three Months Away

Key Drivers

Economy
Former President Trump
Supreme Court Abortion Decision
College Debt Relief

Election Predictions

2022 Senate Elections
2022 House Elections

Potential for Post Election Stagnation

Likely Probes if Republicans Win House

Evolving Candidates for 2024 Presidential Election