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New Tiburon Research Report - Current Events: Making Sense of the Impacts of Today’s Market Events
Tiburon Strategic Advisors, a market research & strategy consulting firm serving a wide variety of financial institutions and investment managers, is pleased to announce the release of its newly updated research report on Current Events. This research release summarizes some of the report's key findings.
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Please click the image above to view the table of contents for Tiburon's Current Events
Research Report
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The purpose of this report is to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of current events and their impact on financial service companies. It will be Tiburon's first effort at putting its views of the impact of these events into a single report.
The report will address world political events, world disasters, the economy & stock market, corporate scandals, financial services industry stumbles, the upcoming presidential & congressional elections, and the regulatory environment.
This is Tiburon’s first draft of this report. It was written by gathering prior Tiburon research.
Key Findings
This report has a long list of interesting facts to share:
The Evolution of Current Events
This first section will discuss market history, market growth, & key issues as well as the leading current events
Market History, Market Growth, & Key Issues
- World War I began in 1914 and ended in 1918
- The stock market crashed in 1929 beginning The Great Depression
- World War II began in 1939 and ended in 1945
- In the eighteen months following the start of World War II the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 16.0%
- The Korean War began in 1950 and ended in 1953
- The Cuban missile crisis began in 1962
- The Vietnam War began in 1963 and ended in 1973
- The stock market plummeted in 1987
- The Rwanda genocide claimed 500,000 lives in 1994
- Enron declared bankruptcy in 2001
- The sub-prime mortgage swept the nation in 2008
- The country will elect a new president in 2008
Critical Current Events
This section addresses six points in current events, including world political events, world disasters, economy & stock market, corporate scandals, financial service industry stumbles, presidential & congressional elections, & regulatory environment
World Political Events
- Full-service brokers do not believe world events have had a huge impact on their clients’ behavior
- Over two-thirds of equity analysts believe the Iraq War will have a negative impact on stock performance
- The most devastating world political event in terms of loss of life in the past thirty years was the Afghanistan Civil War against Russia with one million lives lost
World Disasters
- Hurricane Katrina occurred in 2005
- The China Earthquake occurred in 2008
- The Burma Cyclone occurred in 2008
Economy & Stock Market
- In the early 2000s, investors faced a bear market that in length and magnitude matched up with the worst of times
- The market lost $8 trillion in value between 2000 and 2003
- Full-service brokers view the economy and stock market only as a moderate challenge
Corporate Scandals
- Full-service brokers view recent corporate scandals as only a moderate challenge
- Corporate scandals have had little impact on consumers’ investing and savings habits
- Enron manipulated California’s electricity market to extract illegal profits by submitting false data
- Enron executives paid $155 million in fines, including a $90 million lawsuit filed against former CEO Ken Lay
- Over
$600 million in fines have been levied against financial services companies in regards to their Enron Involvement; Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup were the hardest hit
- World Com executives were accused of masterminding an $11 billion accounting scandal
- Former World Com Chief Financial Officer Scott Sullivan agreed to plead guilty in 2005 to securities fraud and agreed to be the government’s primary witness against his former boss
- Martha Stewart was tried for securities fraud in 2004
- Federal prosecutors alleged that Richard Scrushy and other Health South executives inflated earnings by $2.7 billion between 1996 and 2003 in order to meet Wall Street expectations
- The Health South case was viewed as an important test for the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which holds CEOs and chief financial officers criminally liable for inaccuracies on company financial statements
- Adelphia had six former executives, including Founder John Rigas and his three sons charged with 24 counts of fraud & conspiracy
- Rite Aid misstated $1.6 billion in earnings which led to huge profits for executives with significant stock holdings
- Federal prosecutors alleged that Global Crossing executives created deals in 2000 & 2001 involving the swap of communications capabilities with other telecommunications companies
- Federal prosecutors ultimately declined to file charges against Global Crossing due to the lack of sufficient evidence
- Kmart misstated its 2001 earnings by $24 million
- Nortel executives inflated revenues by $3.1 billion in order to meet bonus targets
- Qwest Communications was the subject of a federal hearing involving swap deals, inflated revenues, and alleged executive misconduct
- The SEC charged former executives at Gateway with securities fraud
Financial Services Industry Stumbles
- Full-service brokers view industry stumbles as only a moderate challenge
- The mutual funds scandal was not just one scandal but rather a series of wrongful actions, including late trading & timing, failure of proper disclosure, and the application of breakpoints
- The Securities & Exchange Commission and Eliot Spitzer charged Invesco and its CEO for allowing dozens of clients to make market timing trades that violated prospectus language
- An internal investigation at The Charles Schwab Corporation in 2004 revealed instances of market timing
- No charges were filed against The Charles Schwab Corporation regarding the late trades
- Franklin Resources suspended one trader and one fund officer for short-term trading of fund shares in its 401k plan
- Sun Life of Canada’s MFS paid $225 million in fines and agreed to lower its fees by $125 million over five years to settle charges of including false or misleading information in prospectuses regarding market timing
- To temper market timing activities, Fidelity has proposed expanding redemption fees on investors who buy and sell funds too frequently
- Some mutual fund companies are lowering fees in
response to increased government and public scrutiny
- It is tough for investors to win claims against mutual fund practices because mutual funds possess most of the aspects of a conservative investment
- But no matter how tainted, mutual fund companies are still being coveted by large financial services companies
- In 2002, a $1.4 billion settlement from ten of the largest Wall Street banking firms put an end to the investigation
- The aftermath of the scandal brought significant changes to the way the major Wall Street firms do business, particularly in the fields of equity research and investment banking
- Consumer households’ sub-prime loans outstanding increased almost 300% between 2003 and 2007 to $1.3 trillion
- The write-offs have been staggering, led by those at UBS, Merrill Lynch,
& Citigroup
- The bigger public policy issue here is the threat to baby boomers’ ability to retire; lost real estate equity will challenge the liquidation
- Two-thirds of consumers are very or somewhat confident about their financial situation when retiring; many of these may be overconfident
- Ex-All First Financial currency trader John Rusnak covered up almost $700 million in losses
Presidential & Congressional Elections
- The 2008 presidential election will have an impact on a number of key industry issues, including tax cuts, the privatization of Social Security, and IRA contributions
- The tax rate for dividends & long-term capital gains is likely to remain at 15%
- President Bush is expected to appeal to congress to make his previous tax cuts permanent including a top federal income tax rate of 35%
Regulatory Environment
- Under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 management can be held criminally liable if financial results are not reported correctly
- Regulation is aimed at curbing market timing in the mutual fund industry
- The SEC may be forced to shift some of its responsibilities to individual states due to the surge in the number of financial advisors it will now oversee
- Nearly two-thirds of investors incorrectly believe that brokers and investment advisors offering fee-based advice are required to disclose all conflicts of interest prior to providing advice
- Nearly all investors believe that financial professionals offering fee-based advice should always have a responsibility to act in the client’s best interest
Making Sense of the Impacts of Today’s Market Events
This section addresses three future predictions in current events, including conclusions & observations, winners & losers, & future predictions:
- The annual number of bankruptcy filings amongst individuals age 50 or older has almost tripled in the last decade
- Consumers now point to government bonds and gold as the investment vehicles of choice
- The majority of consumers feel that financial institutions and the regulatory systems do not protect them against investment losses and accounting fraud
- World political events may lessen with a new US administration but will likely continue
- The economy & stock market should do well over the medium term
- The recent large number of corporate scandals will (hopefully) lessen
- The financial services industry is likely to make fewer stumbles
- Senator John McCain and Barrack Obama are engaged in the US presidential election
- The financial services regulatory environment is likely to become more defined
To better understand the developments in current events, executives can purchase Tiburon's Current Events: Making Sense of the Impacts of Today’s Market Events research report where the key findings highlighted above are covered in greater detail. Please contact Sarah Sage at SSage@TiburonAdvisors.Com or 415-789-2540.
More Information
The following links will open specific pages on Tiburon's web site:
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- Tiburon May Research Report Releases (Consumer Wealth)
- Tiburon March Research Report Releases (Fee-Only Financial Advisors (RIAs) Market, Financial Advisor Mergers & Acquisitions, and Institutional Mergers & Acquisitions)
- Tiburon January Research Report Releases (Consumer Wealth & Separately Managed Accounts & Other Fee-Account Programs)
- Tiburon November Research Report Releases (Retail Banks Market, Full-Service Brokerage Firms Market, Online Financial Services Market, Fee-Only Financial Advisors (RIAs) Market, Insurance Agents Market, Other Infrastructure Issues)
- Tiburon September Research Report Releases (Consumer Wealth, Investment & Wealth Management Products, Real Estate, Other Alternative Investments, Insurance Products, Competition & Advice, and Target Markets and Sales & Marketing Strategies
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Tiburon Strategic Advisors
Tiburon Strategic Advisors, based in Tiburon, CA, was formed in 1998 to offer market research & strategy consulting services to all types of financial institutions and investment managers:
- The firm has served over 300 corporate clients and completed over 1,100 projects since its founding, and today, its knowledge base includes mutual fund distribution, separately managed account programs, alternative investments, wealth management, insurance products, banking services, the fee-only financial advisor market, the CPA firm market, the family office market, and various international markets.
- Tiburon holds a series of CEO Summits semi-annually for its executive-level clients. The next CEO Summit is scheduled for October 14-15, 2008 (San Francisco, CA) at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in San Francisco, CA. 2009 dates are April 9-10, 2009 (New York, NY), and October 7-8, 2009 (San Francisco, CA). Attendance is by invitation only and attendance at each Summit is limited to 125 senior industry executives. Visit the CEO Summits section of Tiburon's web site for details on current and past CEO Summits, including attendee lists, meeting agendas, and highlights. Please contact Tiburon's Managing Principal Chip Roame at CRoame@TiburonAdvisors.Com or (415) 789-2541 if you are a Tiburon client and have an interest in attending a future Tiburon CEO Summit.
- Tiburon has published forty-one ~300-400+ page research reports, which offer detailed analyses of growing business segments; each is available for $5,000; these reports can be ordered by contacting Sarah Sage at SSage@TiburonAdvisors.Com or (415) 789-2540.
- Tiburon offers an annual research report retainer service, whereby dozens of clients receive all Tiburon reports published within a year for $25,000; clients can subscribe to Tiburon's 2008 Research Report Retainer by contacting Sarah Sage at SSage@TiburonAdvisors.Com or (415) 789-2540.
- Tiburon also offers a database access program, whereby it shares its 300,000+ person industry executives contacts database with dozens of clients for $25,000 per year (distributed quarterly); clients can subscribe to Tiburon's Database Access Program by contacting Sarah Sage at SSage@TiburonAdvisors.Com or (415) 789-2540.
- Tiburon offers thirteen online business benchmarking tools that are available to all types of financial advisors in an effort to help them benchmark their business practices and build more successful businesses. The sites include www.BrokerBestPractice.Com for wirehouse & regional brokers, www.FABestPractices.Com for fee-only financial advisors, www.IndependentRepBestPractices.Com for independent reps, and www.PrivateBankerBestPractices.Com for private bankers. Almost 5,000 advisors have used these tools. By completing one of the online surveys, financial advisors can access a FREE copy of the relevant comprehensive Tiburon research report, which summarizes and analyzes the collective results.
- Tiburon's weekly research releases, like this one, are emailed for free to interested industry executives, media representatives, conference planners, and individual financial advisors. Over 55,000 industry executives now receive these releases. Feel free to sign up to receive future research releases at Tiburon's web site (www.TiburonAdvisors.Com) if this release was passed to you by a colleague and you would like to receive them directly in the future.
- Tiburon plans to expand its workforce in 2008-2009. Specifically, the firm plans to add two-to-three incremental principals (the most senior role at the firm) and several more research managers in 2008-2009.
- Tiburon has built three executive programs (CEOs-in-Residence, Financial Advisor Roundtable, and Consulting Fellows) in an effort to bring the experiences of additional senior level industry executives to Tiburon clients. Feel free to contact any of the members of Tiburon's executive programs directly or ask that they be included in any ongoing TiburonTiburon has built three executive programs (CEOs-in-Residence, Financial Advisor Roundtable, and Consulting Fellows) in an effort to bring the experiences of additional senior level industry executives to Tiburon clients. Feel free to contact any of the members of Tiburon’s executive programs project.
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